Friday, 18 May 2018

The Bitcoin Rut – What"s Next and Can the Bulls Come Out on Top?

Bitcoin gained 1.87% on Wednesday, reversing Tuesday’s 1.79% fall, to end the day at $9,241.6.

A start of the day fall through the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996 found buying appetite to reverse the early loss and see Bitcoin break out from the 23.6 FIB Retracement Level to a morning high $9,204.3 before easing back, the morning high falling short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,275.6.

Following a range bound middle part of the day, Bitcoin found its legs in the latter part of the day to test the day’s first major resistance level, with an intraday high $9,279.9, before easing back by the day’s end to hold clear of the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level and close at $9,000 levels for a 5th consecutive day.

The gains on the day were minor relative to Bitcoin Cash’s 7.83% rally and not enough to pull Bitcoin into positive territory for the current week, Bitcoin struggling to break free from its current ranges and a make a run at late April’s swing hi $9,767.4 and $10,000 levels.

There’s been no materially negative news to hold Bitcoin back, with Bitcoin now needing to break out from its current range to continue the recover from the first quarter sell-off. Failure to break out and resultant pullback to low $8,000 levels could see Bitcoin take a near-term slide, while the longer-term trend continues to look bullish for now, sentiment towards Bitcoin and the broader market having improved through April.

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At the time of writing, Bitcoin was down 0.18% to $9,220, with a morning high $9,292.0 coming up short of the day’s first major resistance level of $9,358.23 to move into reverse through the middle of the morning, with Bitcoin falling to a morning low $9,161 in the last hour.

The tight ranges have continued through morning and for the day ahead, a move through to $9,300 levels will be needed to draw in buyers on the side lines and take a run at the day’s first major resistance level of $9,359.23 and bring $9,500 levels back into play.

For Bitcoin to have a look at $10,000, a move through the late April swing hi $9,767.4 would be needed, requiring a break through the 2nd major resistance level of $9,474.87, which looks unlikely for now as investors continue to lock in profits on narrower gains ahead of Bitcoin Cash’s hard fork.

Failure to test the day’s first major resistance level will likely see Bitcoin go into reverse later in the day through the first major support level of $9,046.63 to test buyer appetite at the 23.6% FIB Retracement Level of $8,996, with any deterioration in sentiment across the market bringing the day’s 2nd major support level of $8.851.67 into play, before any recovery on the dip.

Uncertainty over the impact of Bitcoin Cash‘s hard fork on Bitcoin may be playing a hand in the current moves, with the investors also mindful of new regulations that are expected to be rolled out in the coming months.

BTC/USD 03/05/18 Hourly Chart

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